Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.
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Here Are the Biggest Problems Facing the Fed Right Now
The Federal Reserve has a lot on its plate at the moment. Not only are "transitory" inflation pressures proving to be more stubborn than expected, but unemployment remains relatively high even as the U.S. economy recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, there are also technical challenges that the central bank now faces as it gets closer to tapering its asset purchases. Finally, there's the possibility of an imminent U.S. debt crisis as Washington continues to wrangle over raising the limits on federal borrowing. On this episode, we speak with Joseph Wang, a.k.a "Fed Guy," to talk about all the difficulties facing the Fed right now. Wang is a former trader on the Fed's open market desk and has first-hand experience in how debt ceiling brinkmanship can affect money markets. He gives his thoughts on what would happen if there were a technical default, how we should be thinking about U.S. Treasuries right now, why crypto may have changed everything, plus insights into how the central bank actually makes its decisions. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This Is How the Trillion Dollar Coin Could End Debt Ceiling Fights for Good
Every few years, people are reminded of the weird law the United States has: the debt ceiling. Congress has to vote affirmatively to raise the total outstanding legal stock of debt the country can take on. If Congress fails to vote in favor of it, you could see a theoretical debt default, with devastating consequences. Sometimes the vote is routine and easy. Sometimes it's contentious, as it was in 2011. But arguably there's an easy solution that could avoid these fights altogether: A provision in the law which gives the Treasury Secretary the unilateral right to create platinum coins of any denomination. While this sounds like a joke, there's a serious argument that it offers a robust legal path out of the problem. On this episode we speak with Rohan Grey, a professor at Willamette University College of Law and one of the foremost experts on the legality of the coin maneuver, on how it works in practice and in theory. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Isabella Weber on China’s Vision for Making Markets Work
For years, people have talked about China's ongoing process of opening up, or liberalizing its economy. And yet lately it's taken strong moves that seem to indicate a change in direction. It's cracked down on some of its largest tech companies while also allowing its real estate sector to cool off considerably, as we've seen with the stress on Evergrande. On this Odd Lots, we speak with UMass Amherst professor Isabella Weber, the author of the new book How China Escaped Shock Therapy: The Market Reform Debate. She explores China's big vision for making markets work in the pursuit of its ideas on socialism, and how the recent moves fit into a much broader, ongoing strategy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This Is What the Pandemic Did to the U.S. Rail System
The pandemic has obviously sent shockwaves throughout the supply chain. And, despite hopes of normalization, things might even be getting worse. The number of ships, for example, waiting to unload at the Port of Los Angeles has continued to grow. And it seems like every day another company talks about various shortages. So what does it mean for our commercial rail system? On this episode, we speak with Ian Jefferies, the President and CEO of the Association of American Railroads, to discuss the state of rail, how the industry has adapted, and the work it will take to get things back to normal. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
How To Understand the Inflation We’re Seeing Right Now
Over the last several months, inflation has risen at a pace significantly faster than what economists have expected. Markets, and perhaps the Fed, take some solace in the fact that it can largely be tied to economic disruptions from the pandemic, and prove to be "transitory". But is it really transitory? And when will it fade? On this episode of Odd Lots, we speak with Julia Coronado and Laura Rosner-Warburton, the co-founders of the firm Macropolicy Perspectives, to get a better handle on what's going on, how long it will last, and the ramifications for the future. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Understanding Evergrande, the Chinese Real Estate Conglomerate That’s Nearing Collapse
If you've been following the wild ride that is Chinese real estate, then you've definitely heard of Evergrande. The price of its shares and bonds has been tumbling lately amid concerns about its cash flow and its model. But what really is Evergrande? And who stands to lose in a theoretical restructuring? On this episode, we speak with Travis Lundy, an independent analyst based in Hong Kong who publishes on Smartkarma, about the company's business model and what comes next. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Stacy Rasgon on How the Global Chip Crisis May Be Getting Even Worse
We've been talking about chips on Odd Lots for almost a year now. Thanks to a unique combination of events and constraints, capacity to make more semiconductors is incredibly tight. One industry that's lost out significantly is cars, as automakers are still cutting production due to an inability to source chips. On this episode, we speak with return guest Stacy Rasgon, a Managing Director and U.S. semiconductor analyst at Bernstein to discuss the current state of the industry, and why things are still so messed up. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Dan Wang Explains What China's Tech Crackdown Is Really All About
Over the last several months, Chinese authorities have undertaken a sweeping campaign of change. We've seen crackdowns on big tech and fintech companies (like Ant Financial and Didi), online education companies, and now even the playing of video games. Investors in key sectors have gotten clobbered by the new rules. So what is the goal and what is the endgame here? On this episode, we speak to Dan Wang, a China tech analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, who breaks it all down. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Zoltan Pozsar on What’s Going on in Rates Markets Right Now
There's a lot happening in the plumbing of the financial system. The Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility has seen huge takeup from financial market participants seeking to park excess cash. Meanwhile, the central bank has also announced the start of a new standing repo facility. And, of course, we're nearing the start of tapering, when the Fed will start to wind down its asset purchases. On this episode, we bring back Credit Suisse Strategist Zoltan Pozsar to talk about everything that's going on right now. He describes a system awash with dollars that no one wants, and walks us through what that means for broader markets. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Patrick O'Shaughnessy on the Next Big Thing in Passive Investing
Passive investing is kind of boring. You dump your money in an index fund and that's it. The industry hasn't really seen big innovation since ETFs were invented in the 1990s. Enter custom indexing. Custom indexing allows asset managers to create bespoke indices for their clients. Interest in the space is already booming, with Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and JPMorgan all making acquisitions in the space. But what exactly is the difference between investing in a custom index versus something like the S&P 500? And why haven't custom indices been done before? On this episode we speak with Patrick O'Shaughnessy, CEO of OSAM and the host of the podcast "Invest Like the Best", about direct investing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Omair Sharif Explains How Inflation Measures Really Work
When people think about what inflation is, they might first think about some broad index like the CPI. What does the the CPI really tell us? And how is it constructed? And how much does its rise and fall relate to the state of the macro-economy? On this episode, we speak with Omair Sharif, a longtime veteran of both the buy and sell-side, who is now the founder and president of Inflation Insights. Omair knows inflation index construction better than anyone, and he walks us through what's happening right now, and how he thinks about forecasting where inflation will go. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
How Solana and Pyth Aim To Take DeFi to the Next Level
There's obviously a lot of interest in crypto and DeFi these days. And while it's growing rapidly, it's still not cutting much into traditional finance business lines. For the most part, trading on blockchains is slow and costly. But some projects don't accept the premise that blockchains have to be slow and inefficient. Solana is an Ethereum competitor whose native token has been soaring. And unlike Ethereum, its transactions are cheap and ultrafast. So what tradeoffs does it make? And what projects are being built on top of it? On this episode, we speak with Solana founder Anatoly Yakovenko and Kanav Kariya of Jump Trading, who is involved with an oracle project called Pyth. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mitu Gulati and Ugo Panizza on Haiti’s Odious Post-Colonial Debt
Nearly 200 years ago, the colonialist French power granted independence to Haiti. But it did so under the brutal condition that it pay 150 million francs in exchange for its freedom. This was a staggering sum that imposed a staggering imposition on the Haitian economy. And there's good reason to believe that that initial debt contributed to the ongoing poverty in the country. On this episode, we speak with law professor Mitu Gulati and economist Ugo Panizza about this odious debt, the significance of this burden, and the ongoing efforts for Haiti to obtain reparations. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
A Conversation With Ajmal Ahmady, Afghanistan’s Former Central Bank Chief
Over the last week and a half, the world has watched in shock at the dizzying speed of the collapse in Afghanistan. Events are still unfolding, so the future remains extremely uncertain. One former official who has been outspoken in recent days is Ajmal Ahmady, who was running Afghanistan's central bank on an interim basis right up until the government fell. On this episode, we speak with Ahmady about what operations at the bank looked like in relatively normal times, how events transpired in the government's final days, and the future of Afghanistan's economy under Taliban rule. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
David Woo on What the Economists Got Wrong About the Stimulus
David Woo has always been one of the most outspoken voices on the street. A former top strategist at Bank of America, he is now publishing independently at his new site David Woo Unbound. On this episode, he argues that the mainstream economists are getting it wrong, and that inflation will remain uncomfortably higher than what the Fed wants to see. We also discuss the economy more broadly, the virus, and the U.S. relationship with China. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.