Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.
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This Is Zoltan Pozsar's Vision For Bretton Woods III
Over the last several years, most economic crises have been solvable by money. Swap lines. Bailouts. Central bank asset purchases, and so on. But now the world is experiencing something new: A problem that money can't easily solve. When it comes to, for example, avoiding Russian energy, there's no simple solution. Money can't buy an instant energy changeover. This is all part of a new regime that Zoltan Pozsar, Managing Director and head of Global STIR Strategy at Credit Suisse, likens to Bretton Woods III. On this episode, he returns to spell out his framework, and what it means for financial markets, the dollar, and the new world economy overall. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
What Wooden Pallets Have to Do With Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
Most people don't think much about wooden pallets -- and that might be true even of people conducting large-scale military invasions. Recent reports claim that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been hampered by a lack of pallets, making it more difficult to move the vast amounts of supplies needed to support soldiers and tanks. Meanwhile, the disruption of Ukraine's lumber industry could make a global shortage of wooden pallets even worse. On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we catch up with Marshall White, Professor Emeritus at Virginia Tech, to talk about the role of the humble wooden pallet in warfare. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
How Bill Gross Built a Bond Empire And Then Lost It All
For a long time, bond investing was considered a sleepy backwater. You bought a bond and just clipped coupons as you waited for it mature. Boring! Then Bill Gross discovered that bonds could be traded. He founded Pimco and proceeded to make lots of money from bond investing in sometimes questionable ways. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Matt Levine co-hosts in this special Odd Lots episode with Mary Childs, who's just published a book on Gross called "The Bond King: How One Man Made a Market, Built an Empire and Lost It All." We discuss some of Pimco's most famous trades, whether Gross was a good investor, and his legacy to the world of bonds. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Real Reason So Many Musicians Are Frustrated By Spotify
Earlier this year, there was a growing movement among some musicians (lead by Neil Young) to remove music from Spotify as a protest against Joe Rogan. But frustration at the streaming music giant goes back a lot further than that. And it has to do with how royalties are paid, and the lack of transparency about how music gets discovered on the service. On this episode of Odd Lots, Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal speak with Damon Krukowsky, the former drummer of the indie rock band Galaxie 500, and one half of the duo Damon and Naomi. He gives us his perception of industry economics, and explains his frustration as an independent musician with how the service works. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Hugh Hendry On Why The World Still Can't Get Enough Dollar Assets
For years 15 years, Hugh Hendry ran the hedge fund Eclectica Asset Management, earning a reputation as a provocative and contrarian thinker on the entire state of the world economy. These days though, he's living in St. Bart's, surfing, and managing luxury properties for the richest people in the world. But of course, he can't stop thinking about macro. On this episode off Odd Lots, Hendry joins Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal to talk about Europe's big energy mistake, China's property troubles, and why even after all this time, the world can't get enough dollar assets. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Viktor Shvets on Why We Might Be Heading for a Deflationary Bust
In times of uncertainty, people often reach for historical analogies. In recent weeks and months, as inflation has continued to climb and commodity prices spike, there's been a lot of talk of a return to the 1970s. But is that the right parallel? On this episode of Odd Lots, Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal speak to Macquarie Capital Strategist Viktor Shvets about why we should instead be looking at a different historical era. He argues that central banks are at risk of raising rates too quickly and flipping the world into recession. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
A Historic Disruption To The World's Wheat Supply
When it comes to commodities, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has had a notable impact on the price of oil and natural gas. It's also a huge deal for wheat, and food more broadly. Ukraine is a massive player in the global wheat market, and the planting season is basically right now. What's more, Russia is also a big wheat seller, and Belarus is a big supplier of fertilizer. On this episode of Odd Lots, Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal speak with Scott Irwin, an agriculture economist at the University of Illinois, about what he calls the biggest disruption he's seen in his career. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Why Tracy's Furniture Is Stuck on a Grounded Ship
It's happened again. Another container ship owned by the Evergreen Maritime Corp. has gotten stuck a year after the Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal and briefly halted the flow of global trade. This time the grounding happened in the Chesapeake Bay and involves the Ever Forward -- a 1000-foot container ship which happens to be carrying the contents of Tracy's entire Hong Kong apartment. On this episode of Odd Lots, Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal speak with maritime historian Sal Mercogliano about why another ship has gotten stuck, what it says about shipping and infrastructure, and how long Tracy might have to wait to get her stuff. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Here’s How Messy a Russian Bond Default Could Be
There’s a big question over whether Russia will be able (or willing) to make payments on billions of dollars it’s borrowed from investors given its current situation. Not only does the country have a history of previous major defaults, but some of its outstanding bonds are also structured kind of strangely. On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal speak with University of Virginia law professor Mitu Gulati and University of North Carolina's Mark Weidemaier. They describe how odd some Russian bonds are and what might happen after default. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Pierre Andurand on How We Might Get $200 a Barrel Oil
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has kicked off a giant mess in the world of commodities and sent prices surging. Commodities trader Pierre Andurand has made his name from navigating volatile energy markets, correctly positioning for negative prices oil in April 2020. Now, he sees tightness in the energy market staying for some time. On this episode of Odd Lots, he tells Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway how we might end up getting $200 per barrel crude oil by the end of the year, and what that would mean for the world. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This Is The Case For Investing In Nuclear Power
The soaring price of electricity, particularly in Europe, is once again causing a search for alternative sources of power. Obviously there's a lot of interest in wind and solar -- the classic renewables. But due to their intermittency, it's difficult to use them to sustain the power grid without some kind of backup. Enter nuclear power? On this episode of Odd Lots, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with Meredith Angwin, the author of Shorting The Grid: The Hidden Fragility Of Our Electric Grid, and a long time energy researcher. She makes the argument that nuclear is safe, clean, sustainable, and the answer to concerns about grid reliability. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Here's What Cyber War With Russia Would Actually Look Like
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has set off a new wave of concern about cyber attacks. Indeed, there were already reports of some in the run up to the war—like when hackers reportedly targeted U.S. gas producers. But while worries about cyber attacks have been around for a long time, it remains hard to get a handle on the actual threat. Such attacks aren’t all that visible and information on them is often difficult to get, or comes long after the fact. On this episode of Odd Lots, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with Matt Suiche, a famous hacker and co-founder of Comae Technologies, about what a cyber war between Russia and the West may actually look like. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Matt Klein on How Germany Wound up So Dependent on Russian Gas
Harsh sanctions have been imposed against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. However, the country's energy exports have largely been spared. One significant reason for this is Germany's high dependence on Russian energy, particularly natural gas. So how did Germany wind up in this situation? And why didn't it take steps years ago to start weaning itself off of this dependency? We discuss this with Matt Klein, the founder and publisher of The Overshoot as well as the author of the book Trade Wars Are Class Wars. He explains how misplaced German priorities led to years of underinvestment, and a poorly thought out energy strategy, which is now forcing Germany to pivot at a very difficult time. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This Is What Sanctions Can Do to the Russian Economy
U.S. and E.U. countries have unveiled extraordinarily tough sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. But what effect will they have? Are they tough enough? And will Russia feel a significant amount of pain as long as the sanctions don't include energy? On this episode, we speak with sanctions researcher Edoardo Saravalle about the existing sanctions, their power, what more can be done, and what history says about how they will work. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Zoltan Pozsar on Russia, Gold, and a Turning Point for the U.S. Dollar
Even prior to Russia's attack on Ukraine, the global economy was facing an extraordinary moment. Now things have become massively more complex. In addition to the attack itself, rich Western governments have unveiled historically powerful sanctions against Russia, most notably by freezing much of the country's FX reserves. So what are the immediate and long term ramifications? On this episode, we speak with Credit Suisse short-term interest rate strategist Zoltan Pozsar on what this all means, how the Fed will react, why gold is important again, and how could this mark a turning point for the global dominance of the US dollar. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.