Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.
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Dan Wang On the Extraordinary Moment for China's Party Congress
The Chinese government's biggest political gathering comes at a time of numerous challenges.Next week will see a major gathering of China's top officials known as the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. This event only happens twice every decade, and this particular Congress is happening at an extraordinary time for both the Chinese government and the country. Not only are officials grappling with the impact of strict pandemic-related restrictions known as Covid Zero, but they're also facing turmoil in the economy and the real estate sector. At the same time, external pressures are picking up, with the US recently imposing sweeping curbs on the way semiconductor companies do business with China. So what's on the agenda for this major political event and what can it tell us about the future direction of the Chinese economy? Dan Wang, China technology analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, joins us to discuss.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This Is What 7% Mortgages Will Do To the Housing Market
Thanks to the surge in mortgage rates, we've seen a historic collapse in mortgage affordability. New homebuyers are facing a massive sticker shock relative to what they could have paid just six months ago. So does this mean that house prices are due for a crash? On this episode of Odd Lots, we speak with Morgan Stanley housing strategist Jim Egan about what comes next. Egan argues that while high mortgage rates will discourage buyers, there won't be a significant unlocking of supply, since very few people will be forced to sell. It will be housing activity that sees the biggest change.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Toby Nangle on What We Just Learned From Gilt Market Madness
UK financial assets just experienced once-in-a-generation type moves in the wake of the government's mini-budget announcement. Not only did both gilts and the pound sell off dramatically, they rebounded just as dramatically after intervention from the Bank of England. What does it all mean? And how did pension accounting contribute to the massive volatility? On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we spoke with Toby Nangle, an economics and markets commentator, who spent several years running asset allocation at Columbia Threadneedle. He explains why we saw such a dramatic move and what the whole thing taught us about market structure.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
What Is Really Going On With Rent and Healthcare Inflation?
One of the biggest drivers of inflation is rent. Arguably, it's the whole ballgame right now. If rent growth stays firm, it's hard to see inflation getting back to the Federal Reserve's intended target anytime soon. If it rolls over, then maybe that will allow the Fed to breathe a little bit easier. But signals about the future direction of rents are mixed. While the government data is red hot, various private surveys do show some easing. On this episode, we speak with Omair Sharif, the founder of Inflation Insights, who walks us through rent prices and how the numbers are gathered. He also discusses a key change coming to the measured price of healthcare that will likely be a significant drag on inflation in the year ahead.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Marko Papic on What Markets Got Wrong About Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
When Russia invaded Ukraine, there was a widespread expectation of a surge in prices for numerous commodities. That happened initially, but by and large things have not played out the way many investors would have anticipated. So what did markets get wrong? And what are they getting wrong now? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Marko Papic, a geopolitical expert and the chief strategist at Clocktower Group. He offers his view that the war is entering a stage of stasis and stability that will persist for some time to come. He also spoke about why China continues to pursue a Covid Zero strategy, despite the seemingly high cost to the economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Pierre Andurand on What Europe Needs to Do This Winter
Europe is facing an energy crisis and there are some dire predictions about how it will deal with the upcoming winter, when demand for electricity and heating oil are expected to surge. But commodities trader Pierre Andurand sees a path for Europe to survive without Russia's fuel. He suggests that LNG imports can make up a significant amount of lost Russian oil and gas, while simple actions like turning down the thermostat and turning off the lights, can make a big difference to the region's overall supply and demand imbalance. He also talks about the "broken" oil market — where prices may move by $10 on seemingly little news — and how that's impacted his own trading. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Former CFTC Chair on How to Regulate Stablecoins Without Passing Any New Laws
Stablecoin regulation has become a hot topic, and for very good reason. For one thing, it's an extremely fast growing space. Stablecoins are also a primary way that the crypto interacts with the banking system. And beyond that, as we know, crises often originate from assets that promise to be safe (remember money market mutual funds that broke the buck during the 2008 financial crisis. But are regulators equipped to deal with stablecoins under existing law? On this episode, we speak with Timothy Massad, the former chair of the CFTC and a current research fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. He explains why he believes regulatory progress can be made right now with the laws that currently exist, and what a new arrangement for issuers would look like.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Ethereum Network Just Experienced a Monumental Development
For years, it's been on the Ethereum roadmap to transition its blockchain from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. Well, it's finally happened. This means that there are no more "miners" validating blocks on the Ethereum network. Instead, they've been replaced with "stakers" or "validators" who manage the network's rules by posting coins as a type of bond or security deposit. Why is that such a big deal for the industry? And what does it say about the future of crypto? On this episode, we speak with Christine Kim, a research associate at Galaxy Digital, who walks us through the significance of "the merge," how validation works and what's next for Ethereum.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Senator Pat Toomey on the Bad State of Crypto Regulation
Cryptocurrencies often don't fit neatly into traditional asset buckets. They're not exactly currencies. They're not exactly commodities. And while many share commonalities with stocks, there are differences there as well. As such, US regulators haven't come up with clear rules on their trading and issuance, leaving entrepreneurs and investors in limbo. On this episode, we're joined by Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey, who has been harshly critical of the SEC's approach, particularly under current Chairman Gary Gensler. The Senator also talks about his own legislative proposals to start providing more clarity. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Zoltan Pozsar and Perry Mehrling Debate Bretton Woods 3.0
Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar has found a new level of fame over the last year, arguing that we're witnessing the birth of a new currency regime that he calls "Bretton Woods 3.0". In this new era, the centrality of the dollar will fade, in favor of commodities or commodity-backed currencies. But not everyone is convinced. And in fact one skeptic is Pozsar's own close collaborator Perry Mehrling, who is now a professor at Boston University. In a special live episode of the podcast, recorded in front of an audience, we were joined by Pozsar and Mehrling, who debated Pozsar's thesis and the future of the dollar more broadly.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Ezra Klein on the Future of Supply-Side Liberalism
To the surprise of many people, the Biden administration has notched some significant economic policy wins this year. The CHIPS Act represents a major piece of industrial policy aimed at bolstering the US semiconductor sector and making the supply chain more resilient. Meanwhile, the Inflation Reduction Act puts a lot of money towards a range of energy options, with a particular focus on advancing renewables. Ezra Klein, the New York Times Opinion columnist and host of "The Ezra Klein Show," has been a major proponent of "supply-side liberalism," or the idea that Democratic policy aims should focus more on building out supply-side capacity, as opposed to simply redistributing demand. On this episode, we talk about the politics and economics of this endeavor.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Just How Bad Is the Economy Getting in China?
In the wake of the Great Financial Crisis, China arguably led the world out of the downturn. Its gigantic fiscal stimulus not only boosted domestic growth, it also created an incredible amount of demand for commodities all around the world. Today the story is different. The government's Covid Zero policies have been a drag on growth and the real estate sector is deeply troubled, with a rise in homebuyers refusing to make mortgage payments. On top of that, the country is experiencing searing heat and drought. So how bad is it? Are things meaningfully worse than in previous downturns? To understand more, we speak with Tom Orlik, Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics and author of the book "China: The Bubble that Never Pops." See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Neel Kashkari on the Fed's Commitment to Defeating Inflation
At Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave a hawkish speech intended to leave no ambiguity about the Fed's commitment to defeating inflation. But what does that mean in practice? How aggressively will the Fed have to hike? And how much pain will the economy endure as a result of it? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Neel Kashkari, the President of the Minneapolis Fed. He explains his thinking and why he's become one of the most hawkish officials at the central bank. We also discuss the future of the Fed's decision making framework, the impact of student loan relief, the market and much more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Joelle Gamble Explains the Confusing State of the US Labor Market
The unemployment rate is down to 3.5%, which is far lower than just about anyone thought it would be a year ago. So that's great. On the other hand, measures of labor force participation are below where they were pre-crisis. So the question is whether there's been some fundamental shift in the composition of the labor market vs. the pre-pandemic era, or whether we're still in the process of normalization. To dive into this more, we spoke to Joelle Gamble, Chief Economist at the US Department of Labor. Among other things, we discuss the narrowing gap between black and white unemployment and whether this progress can be sustained throughout the cycle.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Helene Meisler On What's Going On With the Stock Market Now
The Federal Reserve is in tightening mode. And there's that old adage "don't fight the Fed" which means in theory it's a bad time for stocks. And yet we saw a surprisingly powerful rally off the bottom in June. But now what? Can the market resume its ascent? Or will we return to the lows, or possibly make new lows? On this episode we speak to Helene Meisler, who has been trading stocks for roughly four decades, and who has a unique approach to analyzing the market. She draws stock charts by hand. In our chat, Meisler explains her methodology, and gives her assessment of the market right now. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.